Analytics Avenue: OPS
Barry Bonds during a game in San Diego in 2007, adding to his career OPS of 1.0515 (Photo: CNN)
One of my favorite lines from the movie Moneyball is when Oakland Athletics GM and former player Billy Beane, played by Brad Pitt, is trying to be convinced by his scouts about certain players to draft. Certain phrases like “He has a beautiful swing,” and “Classic Swing,” and “Real clean stroke” are mentioned to the unimpressed GM.
Beane fires back with “If he’s such a good hitter, why doesn’t he hit good?”
The Moneyball approach by the A’s, who were strapped for cash, forced Beane and his front office to look at players differently. That meant evaluating them with unique stat categories - something that proved be beneficial, and change the game forever.
For the longest time (and still used today by baseball “purists,”) the best way to determine a good hitter would fall into one of these statistical categories:
Batting average (the easiest and most common stat): Determined by dividing a batter’s hits by his total at-bats (excluding walks) for a number between .000 and 1.000. Fun fact: In 1887, walks counted as “hits” - Tip O’Neill (the baseball player - not the former speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives) led the league in batting average that season (.432). He collected 225 “hits” in 572 plate appearances. Needless to say the following season, walks were no longer counted as hits.
Home runs: Whether its over the fence or an inside-the-parker, a homer’s true definition is when a batter hits a fair ball and scores without being put out or without the benefit of error. I hit five in my career in high school and college - Only 757 more to go to catch Major League Baseball’s (MLB’s) all-time leader Barry Bonds.
Runs Batted In (RBI): Batters are credited with this stat when a plate appearance results in a run being scored. Hank Aaron is MLB’s all-time leader (2,297). Fellow Hall of Famer Hack Wilson has the most in a season (191 in 1930), and Jim Bottomley and Mark Whiten are tied for the most in a single game (12), a feat they did in 1924 and 1993 respectively.
All of the players listed (and pictured below) were good hitters - some obviously better than others, but within baseball today lies a stat that if you ask most fans, better amplifies what a good hitter is.
(Photos: 408)
Introduced in 1985 by writers Pete Palmer and John Thorn in their book The Hidden Game of Baseball: A Revolutionary Approach to Baseball and its Statistics, the stat OPS was born.
Its meaning and calculation is simple: OPS adds the stats of On-Base Percentage (OBP) and Slugging Percentage (SLG%). The stat has been more widely used in during the past 25 years to determine who the game’s best hitters are, who is a better choice for an All-Star selection, and even, who deserves an MVP.
Let’s break this down by each individual stat.
OBP: Refers to how frequently a batter reaches base per plate appearance. Ways a batter can improve their OBP include hits, walks, and hit-by-pitches. If a batter reaches on an error, fielders choice, or a dropped third strike, their average will not rise as these plays do not count towards their OBP. Plain and simple: OBP shows which hitters avoided making outs the best. Developed in the late 1940’s to early 1950’s by then Dodgers Executive Branch Rickey and statistician Allan Roth, the stat did not become official until 1984.
OBP’s calculation is as follows:
Hits +Walks + Hit by Pitches / At-Bats + Walks + Hit by Pitches + Sacrifice Flies
In MLB, batters need to average 3.1 plate appearances per game to be considered a league leader in OBP.
Boston Red Sox Hall of Famer Ted Williams is MLB’s all-time leader with a career mark of .482. Williams led MLB in OBP 11 times during his 19-year career. Bonds set the single-season OBP record in 2004 (.609), a season in which he had 135 hits, and 232 walks (120 of them were intentional).
9 of MLB’s Top 10 all-time OBP leaders batted left-handed, which includes Bonds (#7/ .444 lifetime OBP). New York Yankees outfielder Juan Soto is MLB’s active career leader in OBP (.421) and is 19th all-time in MLB history. Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout (.410/ 36th all-time), former Cincinnati Reds and now Toronto Blue Jays minor leaguer Joey Votto (.409 / 42nd all-time), and Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge (.395 / 85th all-time) are the other active players in the top 100.
SLG%: Represents the total number of bases a player records per at-bat. Unlike its friend OBP, this stat only focuses on hits and does not include walks and/or hit-by pitches. Many purists will argue that batting average and SLG% are “one in the same” but in reality they’re not. SLG% takes into account that not all hits are alike. That comes into play when it comes to its calculation:
1B + 2Bx2 + 3Bx3 + HRx4/AB’s
You can see that a batter gets more credit for extra base hits when it comes to SLG% as each is multiplied by the number of bases for each. While a double is not exactly twice as much as a single when it comes to scoring runs, SLG% is one of the better stats when it comes to determining how well a batter hits for power.
MLB’s SLG% all-time leaders are also familiar names, even to the casual baseball fan because simply when you hear these names, you think of the term “slugger.”
Babe Ruth is MLB’s all-time leader, with an absurd .690 career SLG%. He is almost 56 points ahead of second place Williams, who posted a .634 career SLG%. Bonds has MLB’s single season record with a mark of .863 in 2001.
In 2023, MLB recognized Negro Leagues players and their stats as a part of their history. Former Homestead Grays Catcher, Outfielder, and First Baseman Josh Gibson posted a .974 SLG% in 1937 - in only 183 plate appearances. The mythical Gibson led the Negro Leagues in SLG% six times during his 14-year Hall of Fame career.
Josh Gibson, of the Homestead Grays, in 1931. Gibson posted a career .458 OBP and .718 SLG% during his Hall of Fame career. (Photo: Wikipedia)
Simply, OPS is a better measure of a hitter because it shows how well a player gets on base and hits for power. A hit is a hit when it comes to batting average, as a bunt single and grand slam are weighted the same when it comes to the affect on a player’s average.
We all know that .300 and above is the ideal batting average players strive for. So what’s a good OPS?
Starting at .700 (average) with 1.000 and above considered excellent, anything in between is considered good. At the time of this publication, Houston Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker leads MLB in OPS (1.043), with a .417 OBP and .626 SLG%.
MLB’s all-time OPS leaders should be familiar names, even to the casual baseball fan (also because many of them have already been mentioned in this article).
Ruth is MLB’s all-time OPS leader (1.164). He was the original power hitter for MLB - Many still think of him as the greatest player of all time. Although he didn’t collect 3,000 hits (2,873) or 2,500+ RBI’s (2,214), Ruth’s greatness lies within OPS. While leading MLB in home runs 12 times in his career, he led in OPS 13 times (1918-1931 - the most ever), except in 1925 when he only appeared in 98 games (and still compiled an impressive .936 OPS - Rogers Hornsby led the league that season with a 1.245 OPS). The Yankees won three World Series titles during Ruth’s run, making him also the “Emperor of OPS.”
Ruth is followed by Williams (1.115) - Bonds is fifth (1.051), with Hornsby rounding out the Top 10 (1.010). Other familiar names include:
Lou Gehrig - 3rd (1.079)
Jimmie Foxx - 6th (1.037)
Hank Greenberg - 9th (1.016)
There are three Negro League players who also appear in the Top 10:
Oscar Charleston - 4th (1.064)
Turkey Stearnes - 7th (1.032)
Mule Suttles - 9th (1.030)
Gibson would be MLB’s all-time OPS leader (1.176) but does not appear as he only accumulated 2,168 at-bats during his career. To be considered, players need at least 3,000 at-bats during their careers.
Gibson’s career was cut short when he died from a major stroke at the age of 35 in 1947.
We are in a unique time in which we have many players who have both a high batting average and OPS. In fact at the time of this publication, MLB’s top 10 leaders in batting average, all .300 and above, have an OPS above .800, with seven of them having an OPS above .900. Only Atlanta outfielder Marcell Ozuna (1.030), and Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani (1.034) have eclipsed the 1.000 milestone. Ozuna is having a breakout year, while this is “par for the course” for Ohtani.
OPS is also a good translator of runs scored, too. Runs translate into wins, and that shows with the top three teams in 2024 with the highest OPS and runs scored.
The Yankees lead MLB in team OPS (.777), followed by the Dodgers (.769) and Philadelphia Phillies (.754). The Phillies lead the league in runs scored (279), followed by the Dodgers (268), and Yankees (260).
Teams that have a high OPS usually translate into a postseason birth. Seven of the top 10 teams that led the league in OPS in 2023 all made the playoffs (Atlanta led the league with a team .845 OPS).
Having a high OPS also translates into postseason awards, as well. Ohtani led all of MLB in OPS in 2023 (1.066) and was named AL MVP, while NL MVP Ronald Acuña, Jr. was third in MLB and first in the NL (1.012). Corey Seager was second in OPS in MLB in 2023 (1.013) and finished second in the AL MVP vote, while Mookie Betts finished 5th in OPS (.987) and second in the NL MVP vote.
The better your team’s and player’s OPS, the better your overall chances are for that season.
Lets look at a player comparison and get all the baseball purists on board with OPS.
Player A
.252 Batting Average
.300 OBP
.306 SLG%
.606 OPS
Player B
.233 Batting Average
.340 OBP
.474 SLG%
.813 OPS
Based on these stats, and since it’s the focus of this article (duh), obviously you’d choose Player B based on their OPS.
If I told you the two players were Seattle Mariners superstar Julio Rodríguez and Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Rhys Hoskins, would you be surprised to know it’s Hoskins with the higher OPS?
Hoskins (at the time of this publication) has nine home runs compared to Rodriguez‘ two, and Hoskins also has 18 walks compared to Rodriguez’ 12. Both have same amount of doubles (5) and triples (0). Rodriguez has played in 14 more games and has 22 more hits (remember we don’t care about this - only the type of hits matter). Extra base hits with runners on base translate into RBI’s. This rings true for these two players, as Rodríguez only has 14 while Hoskins has 27.
Their OPS numbers can be translated into team success as well. While both teams are in first place, Milwaukee is fifth in team OPS (.751) and Seattle is 25th (.667)
Another facet of OPS is OPS+. With similar characteristics, this stat is normalized across the league - it accounts for external factors, like ballparks, and then adjusts accordingly. MLB has set the league average at 100, so if a player has an OPS+ of 150, they are 50% better than the league average. OPS+ attempts to adjust for certain factors like a short porch or playing half your games with Coors Field’s altitude, as an example.
Babe Ruth, MLB’s all-time OPS leader (1.163). The MLB active leader is Mike Trout (.991) with Aaron Judge (.985) not too far behind. (Photo: Getty Images)
While my career OPS was probably not as high as O’Neill’s (1.180), Aaron’s (.928), Wilson’s (.940), or Bottomley’s (.869), these numbers just amplify the fact they were good hitters. Whiten had a respectable .756 career OPS, with five seasons over .800.
“I don’t even consider or ask what a player’s batting average when scouting anymore,” said an anonymous MLB scout in a 2023 Sporting News article.
“OPS is, and has been the best way to showcase good hitters. Having a player with a reasonably high OPS gives any team a better chance to win and bring home a World Series title.”
So the next time you’re at a game and you hear someone say “This guy is only hitting .265? What a bum!” Keep looking at his stats, because whatever his OPS tells you will showcase what kind of hitter he truly is.
