2024 MLB Preview
“There are only two seasons - Winter and Baseball.” - Bill Veeck
Major League Baseball (MLB) Hall of Famer Bill Veeck is more than right with his statement. Winter seems to be unseasonably long because we all know what’s waiting for us at its season end: Baseball.
The 2024 season is upon us, and there is optimism among all teams and their fans.
Well - maybe not in Oakland, Denver, and Washington D.C. At least the weather will be nice soon?
All kidding aside - Anything can happen. Not many expected the Arizona Diamondbacks and the defending champion Texas Rangers to meet in last year’s World Series. Keep the optimism high no matter who your team is.
Like each and every new baseball season, there are new faces playing for different teams this season. The marquee signing of the offseason was Shohei Ohtani, who spent the first six years on his pathway to Cooperstown playing in Anaheim, heads “up the 5” to play for the rival Los Angeles Dodgers. The other was Juan Soto, who was traded to the New York Yankees. New York and its fans hope that the do-it-all 25 year-old superstar is the missing piece to their 15-year championship draught. Plenty of more signings and trades that will be covered in the team previews below.
Last season, MLB saw many new rule changes come to America’s Pastime, and while this year’s changes aren’t as impactful to this baseball writer, we’ll still see the game differently. They include:
“Tweak” to Pitch Clock: No - the world didn’t end just because MLB installed this rule like many thought (you are reading this article post-pitch clock implementation). Last season, the time between pitches with runners on base was 20 seconds. Starting in 2024, it will be 18 seconds. With bases empty, the pitch clock will remain at 15 seconds. Pitchers began their deliveries with an average of 7.3 seconds remaining on the 20-second timer in 2023. Any way MLB can continue to speed-up the game, they’re going to continue to do so.
Mound visits: Last season, teams averaged 2.3 mound visits per game. According to MLB, “98% of games would not have exceeded a limit of four mound visits.” Because of this, teams will now be limited to four instead of five.
Warm up? Gotta face a batter: I thought this was a rule already? Pitchers who head to the mound in between innings must now face at least one batter. Last season, there were 24 instances in which a pitcher warmed up but didn’t face a batter. According to MLB, this added “three minutes of dead time per event.” (Oh look - another way to speed up the game and you only had to drop two paragraphs.)
Wider runner’s lane: The lane from home to first will now include the space between the foul line and infield grass. According to MLB, “this added 18 to 24 inches to the runner’s lane, and allows batters to take a more direct path to first base while retaining protection from interference. Look for some teams to be given a limited “grace period” in order to modify those fields with synthetic turf.
As we trekked through the doldrums of winter with the intent of welcoming baseball back into our lives with arms wide open, knowing that it will be here soon only makes the excitement level rise with each passing day. The stage is set for another exciting season with plenty of storylines for each and every team.
Cue up Don Henley’s “The Boys of Summer” - It’s time for baseball.
AL EAST
Baltimore Orioles (104-58)
Last season, Baltimore won the AL East for the first time in nine years. Top-to-bottom, they had the best roster in the division, and will have it again in 2024. The “Baby Birds” as they’re called based on all of their young talented players, were swept by the eventual champion Rangers in the American League Division Series (ALDS). That experience - I believe - humbled them, and they’re ready to make a statement in 2024. Last season, Baltimore saw themselves way above the league average in many offensive categories, including hits (1,399 - Average: 1,361), Doubles (309 - Average: 274) and RBI’s (780 - Average: 717). Balanced from top to bottom offensively, Baltimore didn’t have a single player that had more than 100 RBI’s or 30+ home runs in 2023. They made up for that by getting on base and having a team batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .305, which was fifth best in all of MLB. Look for All-Star catcher Adley Rutschman (.277 Batting Average/.374 On-Base %/.435 Slugging % in 2023), and shortstop Gunnar Henderson (143 hits, 29 doubles, .814 OPS - 2023 American League (AL) Rookie of the Year), to lead Baltimore once again offensively in 2024. Don’t be surprised to see 2023 #1 overall pick and MLB’s top prospect Jackson Holliday at some point this season - even as early as Opening Day. The pitching staff “toeing the rubber” at Oriole Park at Camden Yards will be stellar in 2024. As a team in 2023, Baltimore was second in MLB in wins (101), seventh in ERA (3.89), and found a “diamond in the rough” in their bullpen with All-Star Yennier Cano, who compiled a 2.11 ERA and a 1.005 WHIP. Pitching lands Baltimore at the top spot in the AL East - Especially with who will now man the top of their rotation (see below).
2. New York Yankees (99-63)
If I were to have told you that prior to the 2023 season, New York ace pitcher Gerrit Cole had never won a Cy Young Award, would you have believed me? Cole finally won the award last season that he had been chasing during his ten-year career, where he went 15-4, posted a 2.63 ERA (AL Leader), struck out 222 batters, and led MLB in WHIP (0.981). Cole was one of the “bright spots” for New York, who had their worst season (82-80) since 1995 after finishing fourth in the division. Many familiar starting pitchers are gone as New York will look to lean on some new faces, as well as other starting pitchers who were plagued with injuries last season. Carlos Ródon will look to bounce back after his worst season of his career (6.85 ERA, 3-8), and get a full season of work after he joined New York mid-season after suffering an injury in Spring Training. Nestor Cortes (5-2, 4.97 ERA, 67 strikeouts) who was also often injured in 2023, will look to reclaim some of the magic he had in the 2022 season where he was an All-Star and finished eighth in the Cy Young voting. Medford, New York Native Marcus Stroman joins a New York staff that hopes can get the same durability and consistency he provided for the Chicago Cubs last season, pitching 136 innings, striking out 119, and posting a 3.95 ERA. Offensively, the addition of Juan Soto should be a major “spark plug” to a potentially lethal New York lineup. In 2023, Soto was one of five players to play in every game, slashing .275/.410/.519 while hitting 35 home runs and driving in 119 RBI’s. Soto also led all of MLB in walks (132) while scoring 97 runs. New York will go as far as Aaron Judge will take them - As long as he stays healthy. Judge, who missed 50+ games last season due to a broken toe, rebounded well after his 2022 MVP Season. He managed 37 home runs and 75 RBI’s, but injuries and the reliance on young players didn’t help New York succeed in 2023. If New York can stay healthy, and get the production from Soto they’re counting on, they’ll challenge Baltimore all season. They need one more good starting pitcher to be World Series contenders.
3. Toronto Blue Jays (95-67)
Hits will be “a plenty” north of the border once again this season in Toronto - something Blue Jays fans will hope leads their team back to the playoffs for the third year in a row. Led by shortstop Bo Bichette (175 hits, .306 Batting Average, 271 Total Bases in 2023), who led the AL in hits in 2021 and 2022, and first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., (159 hits, 30 doubles, 26 home runs in 2023), look for Toronto and New York to be “neck and neck” all season within the division. If Guerrero is able to have a bounce back year and hit the ball for power and get on base, he should be considered in the AL MVP discussion. Although Toronto was in the Top 10 in hits (6th - 1,423 in 2023), their offense as a whole needs to take the next step. They finished just above the league average in SLG% (.417), OPS (.745), and BAbip (.301). Look for centerfielder George Springer (158 hits, 25 doubles, 87 runs, .405 SLG% in 2023) to continue his path back to being full-strength after a few injury-riddle seasons, especially with third baseman Matt Chapman no longer with Toronto. Starting Pitcher Kevin Gausman (12-9, 237 Strikeouts, 3.16 ERA, 1.178 WHIP in 2023) leads a Toronto staff that was fourth in MLB in ERA (3.78) second in innings pitched (1,451), and second in strikeouts (1,528). Chris Bassitt (16-8, 186 strikeouts), and José Berríos (2.3 WAR, 184 strikeouts, 1.186 WHIP) last season round out the rotation and look to carry their momentum in the tough AL East in 2024.
4. Tampa Bay Rays (84-78)
Tampa Bay looked like “world beaters” last season, winning their first 13 games of the season. As the season progressed, and as injuries and off the field issues arose, they sputtered out of the playoffs in the Wild Card series to Texas. Their roster will look a little different in 2024, and due to some inexperience, is why they're focused to finish fourth. The departure of starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow, who was traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers along with outfielder Manuel Margot will be felt, but as we all know, Tampa Bay always replenishes their roster every year. Zach Eflin, who signed the richest deal in Tampa Bay history last season (3 years/$40 million), takes over as the team’s ace. He led the AL in wins in 2023 (16), and finished sixth in the Cy Young voting while posting a 3.50 ERA and striking out 186. Aaron Civale, who was traded from Cleveland at the deadline last year, brings the second-most experience to the staff. He struggled in his 10 starts with Tampa Bay last season, posting a 5.36 ERA, allowing 27 runs, and a 1.368 ERA. The absence of Shane McClanahan, who was 11-2 with 121 strikeouts before opting for Tommy John Surgery in August 2023, will also be felt this season. Look for Taj Bradley (104 innings pitched, 129 strikeouts), and Shane Baz (also recovering from Tommy John), who both were drafted and developed in the Tampa Bay system, to fill the void left by McClanahan this season. Tampa’s offense should keep them in plenty of games this season. They scored 5.31 runs per game in 2023, which was fourth best in all of MLB. The also finished fourth in OBP% (.331), and third in batting average (.260). Led by 2023 All-Star first baseman Yandy Diaz (5.2 WAR, .330 Batting Average [led AL], .932 OPS in 2023), utility man Isaac Paredes (123 hits, 31 home runs, .840 OPS), and outfielder Josh Lowe (33 doubles, 83 RBIs, .500 SLG%), Tampa will once again look to them to help their superstar in the making, listed below.
5. Boston Red Sox (78-84)
The rebuild along Yawkey Way in Boston will once again be seen in 2024. With many young and up-and-coming players, look for Boston to move up in these projections for sure in 2025. Even though the finished last in the AL East in 2023, Boston’s offense was surprisingly decent. They were sixth in MLB in team batting average (.258), just above the league average in OBP% (.324), and were ninth in SLG% as at team (.424). Led offensively by third baseman Rafael Devers (157 hits, 100 RBIs, .851 OPS in 2023) Boston will look for offensive support to help Devers after the departures of Justin Turner (Toronto) and Alex Verdugo (rare trade with New York). Look for shortstop Trevor Story, who has only played 137 games since arriving in Boston in 2022 due to injury, to see if he can recreate the magic he had in Colorado before signing a six-year, $140 million deal. Left fielder Masataka Yoshida exceeded expectations in his rookie season in 2023, hitting .289, collecting 155 hits, and finished sixth in the AL Rookie of the year vote. Brayan Bello (3.1 WAR, 157 innings pitched, 132 strikeouts in 2023), and Kutter Crawford (4.04 ERA, 135 strikeouts, and 1.10 WHIP in 2023) take over atop the rotation after Lucas Giolito opted for Tommy John surgery during Spring Training. Veteran closer Kenley Jansen was decent in 2023 (3.63 ERA, 29 saves, 52 strikeouts), but there’s only so much he can do if Boston isn’t scoring runs. Boston’s pitching keeps them in the basement of the AL East once again in 2024. Last season, they allowed an AL East worst 4.79 runs per game, 207 home runs allowed, and team ERA of 4.52.
AL CENTRAL
1. Minnesota Twins (91-71)
Many believed when Minnesota traded All-Star second baseman Luis Arráez for Pablo López last season that Minnesota wouldn’t get the type of return for their former All-Star second baseman. Those people (including me) were quite wrong. López led Minnesota to a division title while compiling 194 innings pitched, striking out 234, was named an All-Star, and finished seventh in the AL Cy Young vote. Minnesota’s pitching was an important factor for their division title, as they allowed the fourth least amount of runs per game (4.07), and walks (443). Consistently going 5+ innings, their staff was also supported by Joe Ryan (1.2 WAR, 197 strikeouts, 1.169 WHIP), and Bailey Ober (3.43 ERA, 1.067 WHIP, 3.0 WAR). With Minnesota scoring 4.8 runs per game last season, that was more than enough run support for closer Jhoan Durán for save opportunities. Last season, he saved 27 games while posting at 2.45 ERA. The absence of Sonny Gray will be impactful, but playing in the AL Central will benefit the Twinkies in 2024. As mentioned, Minnesota’s offense has a lot of “pop” and can score runs in a variety of ways. Shortstop Carlos Correa will look to bounce back after a down year in 2023, one in which he slashed .230/.312/.399 and collected 65 RBI’s. Look for former first-round pick Royce Lewis, who only appeared in 58 games last season, to have an impact on this lineup with a full season “under his belt.” Last season, Lewis smashed 15 home runs, drove in 52 RBI’s, and posted an impressive .921 OPS. He made his mark last season by hitting four grand slams, and collected two home runs during Game 1 of the AL Wild Card series. The biggest “what if” in this lineup is Byron Buxton, who has the potential to be a Top 10 player in MLB. Injuries have ridiculed the former first-round pick’s career so far, who only appeared in 85 games in 2023. A “five-tool player”, Buxton last season scored 49 runs, smashed 17 doubles, and played good defense, as well. Minnesota may turn to him to be their full-time DH moving forward in hopes he can stay healthy and move them past the first round of the playoffs.
2. Cleveland Guardians (82-80)
A new era begins in Cleveland in 2024 after the retirement of Terry Francona, who managed Cleveland for 11 seasons. Francona, who went 921-757 during his tenure, will be replaced by Stephen Vogt, who played for 10 years, primarily with Oakland. Cleveland will be led offensively once again in 2024 by the self-proclaimed “GOAT” José Ramirez, who remained consistent as ever last season, slashing .282/.356./.475, posting an .831 OPS while smashing 24 home runs and 80 RBI’s. Andrés Giménez, who was traded to Cleveland in the 2021 offseason, led the team last season in WAR (5.3) and stolen bases (30), was third in runs (76) and hits (140). Cleveland reward Giménez with a contract extension last season for seven years and $106.5 million. Steven Kwan, the former fifth-round draft pick by Cleveland, will look to continue to grow and improve both offensively and defensively. Last season, Kwan led Cleveland in runs (93), doubles (36), was third in batting average (.268), OBP% (.340), and second in total bases (236). With Ramirez, Giménez, and Kwan’s great abilities to get on base, it makes things easier for Josh Naylor to drive them in to score, which is why Cleveland lands here in the standings. Last season, Naylor had a breakout year, slashing .308/.354/.489, while compiling a .842 OPS (all career bests). He added 17 home runs and 97 RBI’s and received a handful of MVP votes to close out 2023. Cleveland’s 4.3 runs allowed per game last season was eighth best in all of MLB. Their ability to turn games over to closer Emmanuel Clase almost guarantees them a win each time he gets the ball. Last season, Clase led MLB in saves (44) while posting a 1.156 WHIP and striking out 64 batters. Cleveland will lean on Triston McKenzie and Logan Allen (3.81 ERA, 119 strikeouts) to improve and help the staff, especially if the guy listed below isn’t with them come this year’s trade deadline.
3. Detroit Tigers (73-89)
Like their division rivals in Kansas City, Detroit has done a great job of drafting and developing players. As fans, we are starting to see these guys make an impact on their everyday roster. First baseman Spencer Torkelson led Detroit offensively in 2023, finishing first in at-bats (606), runs (88), hits (141), doubles (34), home runs (31), and RBI’s (94). Torkelson, who was drafted in the first round of the 2020 draft by Detroit, will look to drive Detroit’s offense with outfielder Riley Greene (2019 first round pick by Detroit). Injuries derailed Greene’s 2023 season, as he only appeared in 99 games. In those games, though, he collected 109 hits, 19 doubles, and posted a .796 OPS. Look for Akil Baddoo, who has shown “flashes” of greatness in his first three seasons in the Motor City, to help Torkelson and Greene offensively. Baddoo’s 42 walks were fourth best on the team, and pair that with the potential that shortstop Javier Báez lives up to his 6-year, $140 million deal, Detroit’s offense could be decent in 2024. The departure of Eduardo Rodriguez means free agent signee Kenta Maeda steps in as Detroit’s ace in 2024. Last season in Minnesota, Maeda through 104.9 innings earned a 4.23 ERA while striking out 117 batters. He’ll be joined atop the rotation by Tarik Skubal (7-3, 2.80 ERA, 102 strikeouts in 2023), and free agent signee Jack Flaherty (148 strikeouts, 7-6 in 2023). Manager A.J. Hinch, who enters his fourth season (221-265) in Detroit, will once again look to recreate some of the chemistry he was able to develop in Houston (minus the trash cans), winning the 2017 World Series and taking Houston back in 2019, as well. He was able to develop Houston’s young core into the powerhouse they are now - something management and fans and Detroit he can do the same for the Tigers.
4. Kansas City Royals (68-94)
The Royals spent money in the offseason? Known over the last decade of not opening their checkbook, it started atop their rotation. Long time St. Louis Cardinal Michael Wacha (one-year, $16 million), who will take over the top of their rotation. Wacha “flew under the radar” last season in San Diego, going 14-4, posting a 3.22 ERA, and striking out 124 batters. He brings experience to their staff, which is filled with up-and-coming Royals pitchers who were all developed in their system. Brady Singer (2018 first-round Royals draft pick), Daniel Lynch (2018 first-round Royals draft pick) will need to start showing their worth in 2024. Both underperformed (again) in 2023 (Singer: 8-11, 5.52 ERA // Lynch: 0.5 WAR, 4.64 ERA) but thankfully Cole Ragans helped the staff last season. Ragans, who came to Kansas City in the Aroldis Chapman trade last season, was very impressive in his 12 starts, posting a 2.64 ERA, striking out 89, and going 5-2. Offensively, Kansas City will go as far as their superstar shortstop Bobby Witt, Jr. will take them. Witt, who signed an 11-year, $288 million deal in the offseason, was an offensive force last season. He slashed .276/.319/.495 with an .813 OPS, led MLB in tripes (11), stole 49 bases, and collected 177 hits. Witt and catcher/first baseman Salvador Pérez led Kansas City offensively last year, and that’s saying something when your next best offensive option is 33 years old. Pérez continues to amaze, after hitting 23 home runs, 80 RBI’s, and collected 137 hits in 2023. Kansas City also signed outfielder Hunter Renfroe (2 years, $13 million) in the offseason to help alleviate some of the offensive weight felt by Witt and Perez. Last season between the Los Angeles Angels and Cincinnati Reds, Renfroe collected 31 doubles, 20 home runs, and 60 RBI’s in 140 games played. He’ll need to cut down on the strikeouts (125) to help Kansas City contend in 2024.
5. Chicago White Sox (66-96)
Things are a mess on the south side of Chicago. This team is in a rebuild mode, and don’t be surprised if some of the players mentioned aren’t even with Chicago after the trade deadline. Top to bottom, Chicago has a lot of holes in their roster. After a fourth place finish in 2023, don’t expect them to do much this year at all. Chicago was at or near the bottom in many offensive categories last season, including runs (641/29th), Batting Average (.238/26th), SLG% (.384/26th), and OPS (.675/29th). Chicago was able to avoid the injury “bug” in 2023, something that had bit their team over the last few prior seasons. They’ll look to their two big bats once again this year to carry them offensively, especially with shortstop Tim Anderson now in Miami. Outfielder Luis Robert Jr. had his best season to date, appearing in 145 games, leading Chicago in WAR (5.0), while clubbing 38 home runs and driving in 80 RBI’s. He earned his first All-Star nomination, a Silver Slugger, and finished 12th in the AL MVP vote while slashing .264/.315/.542. Designated Hitter Eloy Jiménez bounced back in 2023 as well, appearing in 120 games (139 total in 2021 and 2022 combined), and finishing fourth on the team in hits (124), third in RBI’s (64), and first in Batting Average (.272). Look for outfielder Andrew Benintendi, who signed the largest contract in Chicago White Sox history going into last season (5 years, $75 million) and Yoán Moncada (20 doubles, .425 SLG%, .730 OPS) to also help Chicago offensively. Chicago’s pitching isn’t much better, and their top two pitchers in WAR are no longer on the team (Mike Clevinger and Lucas Giolito). Starting pitcher Michael Kopech (5-12, 134 strikeouts) will look to bounce back after a disappointing start to his career after being traded from Boston. Michael Soroka joins Kopech in the rotation after being traded from Atlanta, to hopefully help at pitching staff that allowed a fifth worst 5.19 runs per game and ERA (4.87), and second most walks (654). Doesn’t look promising this season for the southsiders.
AL WEST
1. Texas Rangers (98-64)
Texas’ investment in their middle infield paid off last season, as the team won their first World Series title in 2023. The duo of second baseman Marcus Semien and shortstop Corey Seager led the World Champs offensively, and were even league leaders, as well. Semien, who signed a 7 year, $175 million deal in 2022, was a “machine” in 2023. He played in every game (162), while also leading MLB in Plate Appearances (753), At-Bats (670), and led the AL in runs (122) and hits (185). Semien posted his second-best career WAR (7.4), which also led the AL, while earning his second All-Star nomination, finishing third in the AL MVP vote, and securing the Silver Slugger in the AL for second baseman. Seager, who finished second in the AL MVP vote in 2023, led the AL in doubles (42), finished second on the team in home runs (33), and first in SLG% (.623) and OPS (1.013). Texas offensively was near the top of most offensive categories in 2023. They were third in both runs per game (5.44) and total runs (881), second in both doubles (326) and batting average (.263), and were third in both BAbip (.310) and ISO (.190). Outfielder Adolis García will once again help Texas remain an offensive threat in 2024. Last season, the slugger has best season to date, posting a 4.2 WAR, while hitting 39 home runs, driving in 107 RBI’s, and being named an All-Star for the second time, collecting his first Gold Glove, and being name AL Championship Series (ALCS) MVP. Texas’ pitching staff was stellar in 2023, and that was without two familiar arms in the rotation for most of the season. The staff put together a 4.28 team ERA while pitching well below the league average (1,395) for strikeouts (1,351). Texas’ offense truly carried them last season, and their staff, led by Nathan Eovaldi. The veteran Eovaldi, who went 12-5 with a 3.63 ERA in 2023, was stellar in the playoffs going 5-0, posting a 3.05 ERA, and striking out 82 batters. Dane Dunning (12-7, 140 strikeouts) and Jon Gray (2.2 WAR, 142 strikeouts, 1.29 WHIP) helped fill the void of a staff who only had future hall-of-famer Max Scherzer for eight regular season games and three postseason games due to injury. If Texas’ offense is “clicking,” and when they get Scherzer and the other future hall-of-famer below back mid-to-late this season, they could be punching another ticket to the fall classic once again.
2. Houston Astros (90-72)
Houston’s roster is similarly built like their rivals to the north in Dallas. Big bats in the lineup, and a pitching staff that is just a “hair” behind Texas, which lands them here. Houston finished 8th in MLB in both strikeouts (1,460) and ERA (3.94), and allowed 4.31 runs per game (9th best in MLB). The AL West is filled with future hall of famers, including Houston’s ace Justin Verlander. He was traded back to Houston at last year’s deadline after he signed with the New York Mets in the 2022 offseason. In 11 appearances, he went 7-3, posted a 3.31 ERA, and struck out 63 batters. He pitched well in the postseason as well, going 2-1 with a 2.95 ERA with 14 strikeouts. Who knows where Houston would have gone if they could have had a few more starts out of him in the 2023 postseason. Lefty Framber Valdez was solid for Houston in 2023, posting a 3.2 WAR in 198 innings with 200 strikeouts. He led MLB in shutouts while also throwing a no-hitter in 2023. Cristian Javier, who regressed in 2023, rounds out the top of the rotation. Even though he went 10-5, he saw his ERA rise from 2.54 in 2022 to 4.56 in 2023. Javier also saw a drop in 2023 in strikeouts (159) and WHIP (1.265), as well as a rise in walks (62). Houston will need him to find that confidence he had from 2020-22 this coming season. Houston’s rotation is good, but the “back end” of their bullpen may be the best in the AL. Ryan Pressly, who has saved 90 games over the last three seasons, including 31 in 2023, moves to become Houston’s setup man for Josh Hader, who signed a 5-year, $95 million deal in the offseason to become Houston’s closer. Hader, looking to reclaim the magic he had in Milwaukee after two disappointing seasons in San Diego, should have plenty of run support. Last season, Hader saved 33 games while posting a 1.28 ERA in 61 appearances. Good pitching, as well as good offense has led Houston to four World Series appearances over the last six years, winning two of them. That offense starts with Jose Áltuve, who has done nothing but produce since appearing for Houston 13 years ago. Riddled by injury last season, Áltuve only appeared in 90 games - but still managed to put together a 2.8 WAR, and slash .311/.393./.522 with a .915 OPS. Kyle Tucker, who led Houston in WAR (5.4), is a superstar in the making after leading the AL in RBI’s (112), and leading Houston in doubles (37), and triples (5) and finishing 5th in the AL MVP vote. Yordan Álvarez’ big bat (31 home runs, 97 RBI’s, .990 OPS) will help Houston cement themselves as another threat in the AL this season.
3. Seattle Mariners (82-80)
Is there anything superstar outfielder Julio Rodríguez can’t do? He leads a Seattle club that just missed the playoffs last season. Entering his third season, Rodríguez, who has compiled a career 11.5 WAR, while batting .279 and smashing 60 total home runs, will look to take another step forward in 2024. Last season, Rodríguez led Seattle in several offensive categories, including hits (180), doubles (37), home runs (32), RBI’s (103), and SLG% (.485). With outfielder Teoscar Hernández, who was right behind Rodríguez in many offensive categories for Seattle in 2023, now in Los Angeles, look for shortstop J.P. Crawford to fill that void. Crawford is an on-base machine, and he proved that last season after leading the AL in walks (94) while collecting 19 home runs, 65 RBI’s, and posting a .380 OBP%. Outfielder Luke Raley joins Seattle after an offseason trade from Tampa Bay. The third-year outfielder showed his worth last season, collecting 89 hits, 23 doubles, and posted an .824 OPS in 118 games. Look for first baseman Ty France (147 hits, 58 RBI’s, .366 SLG% in 2023), catcher Cal Raleigh (3.2 WAR, 30 home runs, .456 SLG% in 2023), and second baseman Jorge Polanco, who came over in a trade from Minnesota (14 home runs, .335 OBP%, .454 SLG% in 2023) to step up offensively in 2024, as well. Starting pitcher Luis Castillo leads a Seattle staff that had three starters win 10+ games in 2023. Castillo led the AL in games started last season (33) while compiling a 14-9 record with a 3.34 ERA. Since joining Seattle after being traded from Cincinnati in 2022, Castillo has gone 18-11 with a 3.29 ERA, and has struck out 296 batters and posted a 1.098 WHIP. A true ace. George Kirby led all Seattle starting pitchers in 2023 in WAR (3.9), while going 13-10 with a 3.35 ERA. Seattle’s pitching, which allowed an AL best 4.07 runs per game in 2023, will need to be just as good or better in 2024 with the other powerful offensive teams in the division “lurking.” Especially from the player listed below.
4. Los Angeles Angels (71-91)
When the best two-way player since Babe Ruth leaves for your cross-town rival, you think “how are we ever going to recover?” It’s going to be a long time before Los Angeles returns to prominence. Shohei Ohtani’s absence will be felt offensively (obviously), but also on the mound, as well. Los Angeles’ staff, which in 2023 allowed 5.12 runs per game (6th worst in MLB), posted a 4.64 ERA (23rd in MLB), and allowed 209 home runs (6th worst in MLB), will need to be better in 2024 for new manager Ron Washington. The starting rotation, which features three southpaws, is led by Reid Detmers, who managed to go 4-10 in 28 appearances last season. His innings have increased since 2021, and I expect that to happen in 2024 and him to build on his 4.48 and 168 strikeouts in 2023. Patrick Sandoval, the second southpaw in the rotation, wasn’t much better than Detmers. Sandoval, who fanned 128 batters last season, regressed in 2023, seeing his ERA rise from 2.91 in 2022 to 4.11 in 2023. He led the team in walks (74), while posting a 1.514 WHIP, which was worst as a qualifying starter. Tyler Anderson rounds out the southpaws, but like his fellow Halo lefties, had a season to forget in 2023. Coming off a 15-5, 2.57 ERA for the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2022, Anderson mustered a 6-6 record in 27 games in 2023. All three will need to be better, especially with the heavy hitters in the division. Its not all “doom and gloom” in Anaheim - they do still have Mike Trout. The future hall-of-famer, three-time MVP, and 11-time All-Star, battled injuries in 2023 while only appearing in 82 games. Trout has fought the injury “bug” the last several seasons. The face of the franchise slashed .263/.367/.490 in those 82 games and still managed an .858 OPS. It’s good for baseball when Trout plays, and hopefully he can stay healthy this season. Former first overall draft pick of the Philadelphia Phillies Mickey Moniak was a nice surprise in 2023. The outfielder had the best season of his five-year career, posting a 2.2 WAR and .495 SLG% and collecting 21 doubles. Outside of Trout and Moniak, look for utility man Brandon Drury (1.9 WAR, 26 home runs, .497 SLG%), infielder Luis Rengifo (104 hits, 16 home runs, 41 walks), and utility man Taylor Ward (14 home runs, 1.9 WAR) will look to help offensively and ease the pain of losing Ohtani. Lots of holes in this Los Angeles lineup.
5. Oakland Athletics (56-106)
The only exciting thing coming out of the Athletics organization in 2024 is the recent renderings of their proposed new stadium in Las Vegas starting in 2028. This will be the last season baseball will be played in Oakland as the lease on the Oakland Coliseum expires in 2024. Once one of the most intimidating places to play as an opposing team, the coliseum has taken a turn for the worse over the last 10 to 15 years. They still have to field a team one last time in the bay, and hopefully they can start putting a better product out there once they move to Sin City. In 2023, Oakland was dismal. They were last in MLB in the following categories: runs per game (3.61), hits (1,187), RBI’s (563), batting average (.223), SLG% (.370), and OPS (.669). Oof. You know it’s bad when your highest ranked WAR player only played in 69 games in 2023. Second baseman Zack Gelof was spectacular in those games, clubbing 14 home runs, collecting 32 RBI’s, and posting an .840 OPS. Expect a full season from Gelof in 2024, and to be joined offensively by first baseman Ryan Noda. The slugging first baseman was second in doubles (22), third in RBI’s, (54), and first in OBP% (.364). Designated Hitter Brent Rooker was another bright spot in the Oakland lineup in 2023. The journeyman in his first season in Oakland, he led the team in hits (114), home runs (30), RBI’s (69), and OPS (.817) Don’t expect anything better offensively from this offense in 2024. Oakland’s pitching wasn’t any better, posting a 5.48 team ERA (29th in MLB), 1,464 hits allowed (4th worst in MLB), while allowed the second most earned runs (865), and striking out an even 1,300 batters (26th in MLB). Starting pitcher JP Sears, who won a team high 5 games in 2023, is the most reliable arm in the rotation. Sears has found his groove after being traded from the New York Yankees in 2022, and since then, going 42-41 with a 4.74 ERA. Ken Waldichuk, the second-most reliable arm in the rotation, struck out 132 batters in 2023. After posting 141 innings last season, look for Waldichuk and pretty much anyone else who can throw strikes for Oakland to get as many innings as possible in 2024. Not much to expect from the Oakland/Las Vegas/Wherever they’re gonna play A’s in 2024 and beyond.
NL EAST
1. Atlanta Braves (103-59)
The most complete team in MLB, look for Atlanta to bounce back after a disappointing exit in last year’s National League (NL) Division Series. Atlanta’s pitching was great in 2023, and was near the top in several MLB categories. Their staff won the most games last season (104), struck out 1,516 batters (3rd most in MLB), and struck out 9.5 batters per nine innings (3rd in MLB). Atlanta’s ace, Spencer Strider, enters his fourth season as the NL Cy Young favorite. Last season, Strider led MLB in wins (20), W-L% (.800), strikeouts, (281), and strikeouts per 9 innings (13.5). The NL leader in FIP (2.85), Strider leads a rotation with that also include Charlie Morton, who posted a 3.1 WAR while winning 14 games in 2023. Morton was steady and consistent last season, throwing 163 innings. They’re joined by another veteran, Chris Sale, who came to Atlanta in a trade with Boston. Sale, who was injured in last year’s Spring Training, appeared in 20 games in 2023. He finished the season strong, fanning 125 batters with a 1.086 WHIP. Sale will be a nice addition to an already strong Atlanta rotation that can turn games over to closer Raisel Iglesias, who saved a team-high 33 games in 2023. Never in my almost 38 years on this earth did I ever imagine I’d see a player hit 40+ home runs and steal 70+ bases in a single season. Outfielder and 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. helped me check that off my bingo card last season. Acuña was unstoppable in 2023, leading MLB in runs (149), hits (217), stolen bases (73), OBP% (.416), and total bases (383). He led the NL in plate appearances (735), at-bats (643), and OPS (1.012). He, and first baseman Matt Olson, who was also an MLB leader in home runs (54) and RBI’s (139), powered Atlanta’s offense as MLB leaders in runs per game (5.85), runs (947), and home runs (307). Third baseman Austin Riley (179 hits, 37 home runs, 97 RBI’s), second baseman Ozzie Albies (4.7 WAR, .280 batting average, 109 RBI’s), and catcher Sean Murphy (.844 OPS, 21 doubles, 21 home runs), will provide additional offensive firepower for a dangerous Atlanta lineup, that has most of their core locked up contractually through 2031.
2. Philadelphia Phillies (92-70)
Philadelphia has had great postseason success the last two seasons, reaching the World Series in 2022, and Game 7 of last seasons NLCS. Some of the bats in this lineup could put another crack in the Liberty Bell, something they’ll need to showcase in 2024. Philadelphia was great in 2023 at putting the ball in play as they were 6th in MLB in BAbip (.308) and ISO (.182). As a team, they hit .256 in 2023, but only .231 in the NLCS, which allowed the Arizona Diamondbacks to represent the NL in the World Series instead of the Fightin’ Phils. Second baseman Bryson Stott, led all Philadelphia batters in WAR (4.3) in 2023. The third-year, former 2019 first-round draft pick by Philadelphia, collected 164 hits, 32 doubles, 31 stolen bases, and a .419 SLG%. Stott’s ability to get on base allowed for the “mashers” in Philadelphia’s lineup to be able to drive him in, as Philadelphia was 8th in runs scored in 2023 (796). Catcher J.T. Realmuto was reliable at the plate once again, batting .252, scoring 70 runs, with a .452 SLG%. He along with superstar shortstop Trea Turner, who in his first season in the City of Brotherly Love picked up 170 hits, scored 102 runs, stole 30 bases, and had a SLG% of .459 in 2023. The “mashers” don’t stop there. Outfielder Nick Castellanos clubbed 29 home runs with 106 RBI’s and a .476 SLG%, outfielder Brandon Marsh found his “stroke” in 2023, collecting 112 hits, 60 RBI’s, and an .829 OPS, and outfielder Kyle Schwarber once again proved you don’t need a high batting average to be productive (.197) as he clobbered 47 home runs, and had 104 RBI’s. He’ll want to avoid leading the league in strikeouts for a third consecutive season in 2024, as he held that “honor” in 2022 (200) and 2023 (215). Philadelphia, like Atlanta, has good balance in their lineup. Atlanta is just a “tad” better, hence why Philadelphia lands here. Starting pitcher Zack Wheeler, who signed a 3-year, $126 million contract extension during Spring Training 2024, earned it by being one the best pitchers in the NL in 2023. He posted a 13-6 record through 192 innings and striking out 212 batters. Philadelphia’s ace, who won a Gold Glove last season, and finished 6th in the NL Cy Young vote, leads a staff that won 90 games (7th best in MLB), posted a 1.240 WHIP (7th best in MLB), and allowed opposing team to collect a .304 OBP against them (6th best in MLB). Aaron Nola joins Wheeler in the rotation, and the former first-round pick for Philadelphia will look keep up his consistent ways in 2024. Nola will look to win 10+ games for the third season in a row (11 in 2022, 12 in 2023), and Philadelphia will need more innings out of him in 2024 to help keep pace with Atlanta. Look for Philadelphia to be a playoff team in 2024.
3. New York Mets (79-83)
Last season, the New York Mets had starting pitchers in their rotation named Verlander and Scherzer. This year, those names have been “replaced” by Severino and Manaea. New York’s pitching, which traded the future hall of famers last season, will keep them out of the playoffs in 2024. Kodai Senga takes over as New York’s ace, and he will look to build off a fantastic 2023. The second-year player, who was an All-Star and finished second in the NL Rookie of the year last season, pitched to a 12-7 record, a 2.98 ERA, and 202 strikeouts through 166 innings. He also posted a great .208 Batting Average against hitters, and struck out an impressive 10.9 batters per 9 innings. Luis Severino takes over as New York’s #2 starter, after pitching the last eight seasons uptown in the Bronx. Severino was not great in 2023, going 4-8 in 19 appearances with a 6.65 ERA. Injuries and poor run support derailed his season, and his new hometown team in New York hopes a change of scenery will help revitalize his once promising career. Sean Manaea joins New York this season as well, which will be his fourth team in the last four seasons. Last season for San Francisco, Manaea was decent, striking out 128 batters in 117 innings with a 1.241 WHIP. His best years are behind him when he was a solid starter for Oakland in his first six seasons. José Quintana rounds out the rotation (1.6 WAR, 3.57 ERA in 2023) thats going to need to be better in 2024. New York owner Steve Cohen vowed to spend money when bought the Mets in 2020, and he has kept his word, especially with his lineup. Shortstop Francisco Lindor enters his fourth season in Queens, and will look to once again lead New York offensively. Last season, Lindor led the team in WAR (6.0), runs (108), doubles (33), and stolen bases (31). He’s joined by first baseman slugger Pete Alonso (who should get paid this offseason) to lead a great “1-2 punch” for New York. Alonso, who will be an unrestricted free agent after this season, smashed 46 home runs, drove in 118 RBI’s, while collecting 123 hits and 21 doubles. Alonso saw his average drop (.217) and strikeouts rise (151) in 2023, something he’ll need to improve upon in 2024. Centerfielder Brandon Nimmo (3.9 WAR, 24 home runs, .829 OPS), and utility man Jeff McNeil (158 hits, 25 doubles, .378 SLG%) round out the leaders for New York offensively. If New York can hold their leads, and turn it over to the player listed below, they might surprise some teams this season.
4. Miami Marlins (76-86)
Last season, second baseman Luis Arráez flirted with history - Hitting .400. For most of the season, his batting average. was in the high 300’s, and although he didn’t eclipse the “magic number,” he still finished the season with a respectable .354 average, which was an MLB best in 2023. Arráez is a hitting machine. He led Miami in hits (203), triples (3), OBP% (.393), and OPS (.861). Miami’s WAR leader in 2023 (4.9) will once again be the main focal point of their offense in a tough NL East. Slugger Jorge Soler is now in San Francisco, so Miami will look to utility man Jazz Chisholm to produce offensively after battling injuries the last two seasons. Chisholm, who in 97 games last year, bounced back steadily, garnering a 1.2 WAR in 97 games with 19 home runs, and a .457 SLG%. Outfielder Jesús Sánchez, was a nice surprise in 2023, collecting 23 doubles and compiling a .450 SLG%. Outside of Arráez, Miami will struggle offensively this year. They haven’t been the same franchise since trading Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich. Miami’s pitching helped lead them to a Wild Card appearance in last year’s playoffs, and their rotation is the most tenured in the NL East. Starting pitcher Jesús Luzardo was great in 2023, posting a 4.1 WAR and a 3.58 ERA. He led Miami in strikeouts (208), wins (10), and second in FIP (3.55). Lefty Braxton Garrett took strides in his fourth season in South Beach, pitching 159 innings while compiling 9 wins and 156 strikeouts. Both Luzardo and Garrett’s season were welcoming to team ace Sandy Alcántara, who regressed a bit in 2023, but was still affective for Miami. Alcántara, two years removed from a Cy Young season, saw his ERA rise (4.14), and strikeouts drop (151) in 2023. With the big bats in Atlanta, Philadelphia, and New York, Miami might be able to contend for another Wild Card spot in 2024. Especially if the player listed below can continue to develop and provide another reliable arm for the rotation.
5. Washington Nationals (68-94)
When former Washington outfielder Juan Soto was traded to San Diego in 2022, many believed shortstop CJ Abrams would have more of an immediate impact as the “focal point” of the deal. It’s starting to show that the other main piece of that deal, starting pitching MacKenzie Gore, may be just as impactful. Gore leads a Washington rotation that was near the bottom of most pitching categories in 2023. Those include ERA (5.02 / 27th), runs allowed per game (5.22 / 27th), home runs allowed (245 / 1st), and WHIP (1.473 / 28th). Gore, though, showed flashes before sustaining an injury in 2023, derailing his season. In 136 innings, he struck out 151 batters (led team) with a 4.42 ERA. A full season with Gore will help his development, while also helping Washington stay competitive in 2024. Josiah Gray was a welcomed surprise to the Washington rotation in 2023, as well. Even though he was 8-13, Gray led all starters in ERA (3.91), and was second in strikeouts (143). Look for Gray to throw more innings (barring injury) in 2024. Left-handed starting pitcher Patrick Corbin rounds out the rotation, as he enters the final year of his disastrous tenure with Washington. Since signing his 6-year, $140 million deal, he’s gone 41-64 with a 5.00 ERA and 1.451 ERA. Washington has a bright future with a highly-ranked farm system, but that system is several years away. Offensively, Abrams showed what he’s capable with a full-season under his belt, leading Washington in several categories including WAR (3.4), triples (6), stolen bases (47), and second in runs (101). Right fielder Lane Thomas was stellar in 2023, leading Washington in at-bats (628), hits (168), doubles (36), home runs (28), and second in RBI’s (86). Left fielder Stone Garrett (1.9 WAR, .457 SLG%, .801 OPS), and catcher Keibert Ruiz (18 home runs, 24 doubles .409 SLG%) round out Washington’s offense. This team, top-to-bottom, needs a lot of help. Don’t expect much from the Nats in 2024.
NL CENTRAL
1. Cincinnati Reds (93-69)
Cincinnati was the surprise team of the season in 2023, exceeding expectations among all and contending for a playoff spot all the way into September. Cincinnati called up a lot of their young talent in 2023 and it gave fans a glimpse of what this team will look like this season and beyond. Top-to-bottom, Cincinnati has the most complete roster in the NL Central, which lands them in the top spot for 2024. Their offense was consistent all season, scoring 4.83 runs per game (9th best in MLB), while also showing their ability for extra base-hits, finishing with 37 triples (3rd best in MLB), and a team OPS of .746 (10th best in MLB). Centerfielder TJ Friedl led Cincinnati in WAR last season (3.7), and was also a team leader in other offensive categories such as hits 136 (2nd), triples 8 (1st), stolen bases 27 (2nd), and batting average .279 (2nd). Friedl, and former Cincinnati first round draft pick, infielder Matt McLain were great at the top of their lineup. In 89 games last season, McClain collected 106 hits, 23 doubles, compiled an .864 OPS and finished 5th in the NL Rookie of the Year vote. First baseman Spencer Steer, who becomes Cincinnati’s everyday starter at the position after Joey Votto’s tenure in the Queen City completed last season, was a team leader in many offensive stats. Not only did he lead the team in games played (156), he led Cincinnati in doubles (37), and home runs (23), while finishing fourth on the team in batting average (.271), and SLG% (.464). Look for former first-round pick by Cincinnati, catcher Tyler Stephenson (113 hits, 20 doubles, .378 SLG%), shortstop, and another former first-round pick by Cincinnati, Jonathan India (17 home runs, 78 runs, .746 OPS), and outfielder Will Benson (15 doubles, .498 SLG%, .863 OPS), to help carry Cincinnati offensively this year. Not only is Cincinnati’s offense good, their pitching is as well. Starting pitcher Hunter Greene leads the rotation that will need to improve upon their team 4.83 ERA from last season, which was 25th best in MLB. Thankfully, Cincinnati plays in one of the worst divisions in MLB. Last season, Greene was shut down for part of the season due to injury, but still managed to strike out 152 batters in 112 innings pitched. Greene has electric stuff, and seeing left-handed Andrew Abbott following him in the rotation will keep teams off-balance all season. Abbott, who led all Cincinnati starters in ERA (3.87) in 2023, will look to continue to improve in 2024. Graham Ashcraft (2.4 WAR, 111 strikeouts in 2023), and lefty Brandon Williamson (111 strikeouts in 117 innings, 1.282 WHIP in 2023) round out the rotation, who will look once again in 2024 to closer Alexis Díaz (.131 Batting Average against, .180 BAbip, 37 saves in 2023) to close games and lead Cincinnati to their first division title in 12 years.
2. Chicago Cubs (89-73)
Like their division rivals in Cincinnati, not many (including me) expected Chicago to have as good of a season as they did in 2023. A good balance of pitching and hitting led Chicago to a second-place finish, something they’ll do once again in 2024. After battling injuries in 2022, Chicago found its ace in 2023 with left-handed starting pitcher Justin Steele. He saw improvement in many important statistical categories, including ERA (3.06), games (30), innings pitching (173.1), strikeouts (176), WHIP (1.171), and led all NL pitchers in HR per 9 innings (0.7). Veteran Kyle Hendricks, who will begin is 11th season in Chicago in 2024, will once again provide stability to the rotation. Hendricks had his best season in three years last season, posting a 3.74 ERA with 93 strikeouts in 137 innings pitched. He will be an unrestricted free agent this offseason, so if Chicago is out of playoff contention by the all-star break, don’t be surprised if they move him. Rookie left-handed starting pitcher Shota Imanaga slots in as Chicago’s #3 starter, after being signed this offseason from Japan. Chicago’s pitching is good, but the absence of Marcus Stroman will be felt as they’ll look to Jameson Taillon (4.84 ERA, 140 strikeouts), and veteran Drew Smyly (141 strikeouts, 11 wins in 2023) to help solidify the rotation. New manager Craig Counsell, who comes to Chicago from division rival Milwaukee, will look to his offense, which was surprisingly good in 2023, to help steady the team when pitching isn’t helping. Last season, Chicago scored 5.06 runs per game (6th best in MLB), drove in 786 RBIs (6th best in MLB), and posted a team .751 OPS (8th best in MLB). Infielder Nico Hoerner, who signed a 3-year, $35 million extension in the offseason, led Chicago in WAR (5.1) last season, as well as hits (175), stolen bases (43) as the team’s leader, as well as batting average (.283 / 3rd), and total bases (237 / 4th). Shortstop Dansby Swanson proved he was worth the $177 million deal he signed last season, posting a 4.8 WAR with 22 homeruns, and a .416 SLG% in 2023. With Hoerner and Swanson’s abilities to get on base, that creates opportunities for outfielder Ian Happ (21 home runs, 84 RBI’s, .431 SLG% in 2023), and outfielder Seiya Suzuki (147 hits, .285 batting average, .842 OPS in 2023) to drive them in and win games for Chicago in 2024. Chicago played in the most 1-run games in 2023, and some of those losses kept them out of the playoffs. They’ll need all the runs they can get this season.
3. Pittsburgh Pirates (82-80)
Pittsburgh “played behind the 8-ball” all season in 2023 after star shortstop Oneil Cruz fractured his left fibula April 9. Cruz, who is fully healed, is expected to be in Pittsburgh’s roster on Opening Day. Cruz provided firepower when he joined Pittsburgh for 87 games in 2022 where he hit 13 doubles, 17 home runs, collected 54 RBI, and posted a .744 OPS. His power and speed are unique, considering Cruz is 6’7. Pittsburgh is going to rely heavily on him this season, especially since they scored 4.27 runs per game (22nd in MLB), batted .239 as a team (24th in MLB), and posted a team .707 OPS, (22nd in MLB). Having Cruz back will help third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes, who led the team with a 4.0 WAR in 2023. Hayes was second in hits (134), doubles (31), and first in triples (7), and batting average (.271). Pittsburgh’s third baseman, who won his first gold glove in 2023, will be in Pittsburgh long-term with outfielder Bryan Reynolds, who signed an 8-year, $106 million extension last season. Reynolds led the team in hits (151), while smashing 24 home runs and 84 RBI’s. Look for up-and-coming slugger Jack Suwinski (26 home runs, 74 RBI’s, .454 SLG%), and utility man Connor Joe (102 hits, 31 doubles, .421 SLG%) to help Pittsburgh and Cruz carry the offense in 2024. Pittsburgh’s pitching was “middle-of-the-road” to below average for 2023, as they weren’t in the Top 10 in many categories. They allowed 4.88 runs per game (22nd in MLB), with a team 4.60 ERA (22nd in MLB), while striking out 1,363 batters (Also 22nd in MLB). Pittsburgh has the potential to contend for the playoffs in 2024, but it solely relies on their pitching. Starting Pitcher Mitch Keller leads the rotation after an all-star campaign in 2023, one in which he went 13-9 with a 4.21 ERA, 210 strikeouts, and a 1.245 WHIP. A true ace, Keller will join new starters to Pittsburgh’s rotation Marco Gonzales, who spent the last seven seasons in Seattle. Gonzales only appeared in 10 games last season, going 4-1 with 34 strikeouts. Prior to 2023, he won 10 games in back-to-back seasons, and averages 6.7 K/9 for his career. Another former AL West starting pitcher, Martín Perez, also joins the rotation in the steel city. Perez “eats up” innings, throwing three consecutive 100+ innings the last three seasons (114 in ‘21, 196 in ‘22, and 141 in ‘23). The two additions, if they can stay healthy, and strike out the batters they were brought in to “sit down” will help Pittsburgh tremendously. Watch out for Pittsburgh this season - They could surprise everyone.
4. Milwaukee Brewers (73-89)
The absence of starting pitcher Corbin Burnes, now in Baltimore, will be felt all season, and that’s why they land here in the standings in the NL Central. Starting pitcher Freddy Peralta takes over as the “Brew Crew’s” ace, something he should slide into just fine. Last season, Peralta pitched 165 innings with 210 strikeouts, and a 3.86 ERA. He enters a contract year with the sky being the limit for what he can achieve leading Milwaukee’s pitching. With Brandon Woodruff on the IL for most, if not all of the season due to shoulder surgery, look for DL Hall, who was acquired from Baltimore in the Burnes trade, to split his time between the rotation and bullpen in 2024. I think he’ll end up a regular starter, and he has the “stuff” to prove it. Hall can touch mid-90’s with his fastball, and with more innings pitched in 2024, should be able to lower is 8.4 hits per 9 innings he posted in 2023. Hall went 3-0 in relief in 19 innings last season after a late-season call up. Hall, who has the potential to be an all-star, will be joined by fellow left and rookie Robert Gasser in the rotation for 2024. Gasser has been impressive in Spring Training thus far pitching in relief, positing a 2.70 ERA with a 1.100 WHIP and 9.9 strikeouts per 9 innings. Milwaukee expects Gasser to be in the rotation, to go along with a staff that allowed 1,218 hits in 2023 (1st in MLB), a 3.71 team ERA (1st in MLB), and a team 1.186 WHIP (2nd in MLB). Keep in mind - all of these numbers were with Burnes - so expect them to regress some in 2024. Offensively, catcher William Contreras was very productive in his first full-season in Milwaukee. He led Milwaukee in WAR (3.8), while collecting 158 hits, 38 doubles, and an .825 OPS, all of which led Milwaukee in 2023. Outfielder Christian Yelich, who enters his seventh season in Milwaukee, has battled some injuries over the last few seasons, but has still been productive at the plate. Six years removed from his NL MVP season, Yelich collected 34 doubles, while driving in 76 RBI’s with a .447 SLG% last season. First baseman Rhys Hoskins, who signed a 1-year, $16 million deal this offseason after spending the last six seasons in Philadelphia, will help Milwaukee both offensively and defensively. Hoskins missed the entire 2023 season after tearing his ACL in last season’s Spring Training. Hoskins bat, which collected 145 hits, 30 home runs, and 272 total bases in 2022, will be a nice addition to a team that scored 4.49 runs per game (17th best in MLB), batted .240 as a team (23rd best in MLB), and had a .292 team BABip (21st best in MLB). Milwaukee’s offense will help keep them afloat in 2024, but don’t expect a playoff appearance this season.
5. St. Louis Cardinals (71-91)
Injuries and poor pitching derailed a promising 2023 season for St. Louis, something they hope to improve up for 2024. Their offense was the “bright spot” last season, and it’ll be led once again this season by first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. Since arriving via trade with Arizona, Goldschmidt has cemented his case for Cooperstown with the production he’s had. With a 146 doubles, 131 home runs, 412 RBI’s, an .873 OPS, and an MVP in 2022, he’ll look to continue this pace in 2024. Last season, he collected 159 hits, including 31 doubles, 25 home runs, and a .447 SLG%. Catcher Willson Contreras had great success in his first season in St. Louis, finishing tied with Goldschmidt in WAR (3.4) while navigating and leading St. Louis’ pitching staff. 27 doubles, to go along with 20 home runs and 67 RBI’s for Contreras were among St. Louis’ leaders in 2023. With more playing time in 2023, infielder Nolan Gorman earned praise, smashing 27 home runs (team leader), 76 RBI’s, to go along with a .236/.328/.478 slash line. Gorman, and St. Louis’ other future hall of fame, Nolan Arenado, round out St. Louis’ offense. Arenado, who saw his consecutive gold glove streak of 10 straight end last season, was still productive as ever, collecting 149 hits, to go along 26 home runsm 93 RBI’s, and a .459 SLG%. Starting pitcher Miles Mikolas leads a pitching staff that struggled in 2023, which allowed 5.12 runs per game in 2023 (24th best in MLB). With Jordan Montgomery still a free agent (at the time of this publication), Jack Flaherty in Detroit, and Adam Wainwright retired, St. Louis will look to Mikolas even more in 2024. Mikolas led MLB in games started last season (35), going 9-13 with a 4.78 ERA. He struggled with hitters, allowing an MLB leading 226 hits, and an NL best 107 earned runs. To help, St. Louis signed veteran starting pitcher Sonny Gray in the offseason (3 years, $75 million). Gray was productive in Minnesota last season, posting a 2.79 ERA in 32 games with 183 strikeouts. St. Louis also signed veteran Lance Lynn (1 year, $11 million), hoping to provide stability to the rotation. Lynn, who started his career with St. Louis in 2011, pitched in 11 games for the Los Angeles Dodgers last season before suffering a season-ending injury. Lynn went 7-2 with a 4.32 ERA in those starts. Lots of holes in St. Louis’ lineup and pitching staff land them in last place this season.
NL WEST
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (99-63)
Los Angeles will once again be “stacked” in 2024, both offensively and defensively. For a team that was in first place for 114 days, and won their division by 16 games in 2023, none of that matters if you can’t put it together in the playoffs - something Los Angeles was a prime example of last season. Los Angeles’ pitching in their NLDS matchup with the eventual NL Champion Arizona Diamondbacks was atrocious. In the 3-0 series sweep, Los Angeles posted a team 6.58 ERA, walked 11 batters, and posted a 1.538 WHIP. Yikes. Because of that, they opened their checkbook and made moves to bolster their rotation. Starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow, who was traded from Tampa Bay to Los Angeles, takes over atop the rotation. Glasnow, who has be oft injured the last few seasons, will look to get back to his dominant days. Last season, he went 10-7 in 120 innings with 162 strikeouts. Glasnow signed a 2 year, $30 million extension after being traded. Yoshinobu Yamamoto joins Glasnow in the rotation, after signing a 12 year, $325 million deal this offseason. Yamamoto was dominant in Japan, pitching to a career 75-30 record with an impressive 1.72 cumulative ERA. It’ll be interesting to watch him develop, as we saw him get “knocked around” in his first MLB against San Diego in South Korea. Bobby Miller rounds out the rotation, who in his first full-season in 2023 went 11-4 with a 3.76 ERA in 22 games. The rotation will be without Shohei Ohtani this season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, and names like Clayton Kershaw and others will join the rotation later in the season after recovering from injuries. Opposing teams won’t like facing Los Angeles’ lineup at all this season, especially since they have three former MVP’s who hit 1-2-3 for them. Mookie Betts now becomes a utility man, becoming the Dodgers starting shortstop in 2024. Look for Betts to play second base, and probably some outfield too. Betts led Los Angeles and MLB in WAR last season (8.3), while slashing .307/.408/.579 with a .987 OPS. Throw in his 40 doubles, 39 home runs, and 107 RBI’s, and 126 runs scored, Betts finished second in the NL MVP vote. Then it gets worse for opposing teams as next up is first baseman Freddie Freeman. The slugger and MVP candidate every season, led MLB in doubles last season (59) with a .331/.410/.567 slash line. With Betts ability to get on base (Freeman too), look for the Los Angeles to be a league leader in runs scored once again in 2024. Ohtani will bat third in the loaded Los Angeles lineup, and if he were able to put up stellar numbers with no help down the road in Anaheim, imagine what he’ll be able to do in Chavez Ravine this season. Last year’s AL MVP, Ohtani led the AL in home runs (44), OPB% (.412), and total bases (325), while also leading MLB in SLG% (.654), OPS (1.066), and OPS+ (184). The recent news about Ohtani’s interpreter and his gambling problem may be a “cloud” over Los Angeles this season, especially if Ohtani is found to be involved in any way. Los Angeles will run through the NL West with ease once again in 2024.
2. San Francisco Giants (91-71)
San Francisco struggled to score runs in 2023, averaging 4.16 runs per game (24th best in MLB). Because of this, they bolstered their lineup going into the 2024 season. Second baseman Thairo Estrada had a breakout season offensively in 2023, leading San Francisco in many statisical categories including hits (134), doubles (26), stolen bases (23), and was second in runs (63), triples (2), and batting average (.271). Utility man LaMonte Wade Jr. was also a nice surprise for the San Francisco lineup in 2023. Wade slashed .256/.373/.417 with a .790 OPS in 135 games last season. Third baseman Matt Chapman returns to the Bay Area after playing in Oakland from 2017-2021. Chapman signed a 3 year, $36 million deal, and will provide an added boost offensively. In 2023, Chapman collected 122 hits with 17 home runs, 54 RBI’s and a .424 SLG% with Toronto. Jorge Soler becomes San Francisco’s designated hitter after signing a 3 year, $42 million deal in the offseason. Soler, who clobbered 36 home runs with an .853 OPS in 2023, rounds out the offense with outfielder Mike Yastrzemski (23 doubles, .775 OPS in 2023), and utility man Wilmer Flores (115 hits, 23 home runs, .863 OPS in 2023) round out the offense). San Francisco’s rotation is led again in 2024 by Logan Webb, who led MLB in innings pitched in 2023 (216). Webb “carried the load” for the staff last season, posting a 3.25 ERA with 194 strikeouts, while leading the NL in walks per 9 innings (1.3). He will get better help this season as San Francisco recently signed 2023 NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell. The two-time Cy Young award winner was dominant pitching for San Diego last season, posting an MLB best 2.25 ERA in 180 innings pitched with 234 strikeouts and an MLB best 99 walks. Webb and Snell, will be joined by lefty Kyle Harrison, the former third-round pick by San Francisco in the 2020 MLB draft. Harrison mostly pitched in relief last season, moves to the rotation this year with high expectations. San Francisco got better going into this season, and with Robbie Ray returning at some point this season, look for them to be a playoff team in 2024.
3. San Diego Padres (86-76)
For a team that allowed 4 runs per game (2nd best in MLB), a team 3.73 ERA (also 2nd best in MLB), San Diego will look to get back into the playoffs in 2024. Starting pitcher Yu Darvish leads the pitching staff as he enters his fifth season in San Diego. Darvish regressed a bit in 2023, going 8-10 with a 4.56 ERA in 24 games. Injuries, and poor run support doomed Darvish in 2023, but with the support of Joe Musgrove right behind him in the rotation, look for San Diego to be great when it comes to pitching in 2024. Musgrove, who has won 10+ games the last three seasons, was bit by the injury bug last season, only pitching 97 innings in 2023. Musgrove’s 3.75 career ERA is a good arm to have in the loaded offensive NL West. Recently, San Diego traded for Dylan Cease, who came over from the Chicago White Sox. Cease is a reliable third starter that San Diego has been searching for the last several seasons. He eats up innings (177 in 2023) and will get better run support in San Diego than he ever did in Chicago. With Juan Soto now in New York, San Diego’s offensive core will look to fill the huge void left by Soto. This core has never really been able to “put it together” since they joined forces. Infielder Xander Bogaerts enters his second season in San Diego, coming off a very productive 2023, where he led San Diego in hits (170), batting average (.285), and was second in OPS (.790). Pair him with second baseman Ha-Seong Kim, who led all San Diego batters in WAR last season (5.8), had a breakout 2023, collecting 140 hits, 23 doubles, and 38 stolen bases, the two provide a great up-the-middle combo for San Diego. Outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. seems to be back to normal after missing the 2022 season for PED’s. In 141 games last season, Tatis collected 148 hits, including 33 doubles and a .449 SLG%. The strikeouts are an issue with Tatis, as he swung and missed 141 times last season, and 153 times in 2021. Third baseman Manny Machado rounds out the offense, after having somewhat of a “down” year in 2023. Machado, who enters his sixth season in San Diego, crushed 30 home runs, drove in 91 RBI’s, with a .782 OPS (lowest for him in seven seasons). Machado has the potential to be the best hitter in the lineup when he wants to be, as he’s often been questioned about his lack of hustle and durability on the field. If this team can “figure it out” offensively, they can be a threat not only in this division, but in the NL, as well.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks (82-80)
Arizona was the surprise team in all of MLB in 2023, reaching the World Series when nobody predicted them to even be a playoff team. Finishing 84-78 last season, Arizona swept their first postseason series, before taking Philadelphia to seven games in the NLCS, before eventually losing to Texas in five games in the World Series. Arizona has a star in the making in outfielder Corbin Carroll, who won NL Rookie of the Year last season and finished 5th in the NL MVP vote. In his first full season in the desert, Carroll led Arizona in hits (161), triples (10 - MLB leader), stolen bases (54), slash line (.285/.362/.506), and OPS (.868). Carroll’s efforts were among league leaders, as Arizona was middle to below average in most offensive categories. Second Baseman Ketel Marte rejuvenated his career in 2023, collecting 157 hits, including 26 doubles, 25 home runs, and 82 RBI’s. The 2023 NLCS MVP, Marte batted .387 with 12 hits, four doubles, and a .987 OPS to propel Arizona to their second World Series in their franchise history. First baseman Christian Walker, who has found a home in Arizona after Paul Goldschmidt was traded, showed signs of his power in 2023. Through 157 games, Walker crushed 33 home runs with 103 RBIs to go along with a .497 SLG% and an .830 OPS. His power is “sneaky” good. Look for catcher Gabriel Moreno (4.3 WAR, 97 hits, 19 doubles), and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (24 home runs, 35 doubles, .463 SLG%) to round out the offense that will need to find more players to step up in 2024. Starting pitcher Zac Gallen was unhittable at times during the 2023 season, which could propel him to big things in 2024 (see below). Posting the best season of his career, Gallen was 17-9 with a 3.47 ERA and 220 strikeouts in 2023. Even though he was “roughed up” in the NLCS (0-2, 7.36 ERA), and World Series (0-1, 3.18 ERA, 11 strikeouts), he’s got a bright future ahead of him. Veteran righty Merrill Kelly (12-8, 187 strikeouts, 1.193 WHIP), and Ryne Nelson (8-8, 96 strikeouts) round out the rotation, one in which they were the only three pitchers on staff to throw more than 100 innings in 2023. Arizona will have to sneak into the playoffs like they did last season in 2024. With much of their same team back, there’s a good shot they could do it again and be a nuisance again come October.
5. Colorado Rockies (63-99)
The only thing going for Colorado these days is that they play half of their games at Coors Field and all the altitude and greatness that has to offer. Somehow manager Bud Black is still in charge of this team after they missed the playoffs for the fifth consecutive season in 2023. The only bad part about being on Colorado’s roster is being a pitcher and having to throw at Coors Field - something their staff in 2023 saw the effects of. Lefty Kyle Freeland once again leads a staff that plain and simple - wasn’t good at all. They were last in MLB in runs allowed per game (5.91), ERA (5.67), hits allowed (1,599), and strikeouts (1,129). Freehand, who was 6-14 last season, threw 155 innings with only 94 strikeouts. Nobody on this staff struck out more than 100 batters, including lefty Austin Gomber (87 strikeouts, 9-9, 5.50 ERA), and Chase Anderson (62 strikeouts, 1.475 WHIP, 1-6). And now having to face teams who got better in 2024 on top of that? Oof. There were some bright spots though in Colorado last season on offense. Utility man Nolan Jones led Colorado in WAR (4.3) while also finishing 4th in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. In 106 games, Jones, who was traded to Colorado from Cleveland in 2022, collected 106 hits, including 22 doubles, 20 home runs, and 62 RBI’s in 106 games last season. Get a full season of Jones (and 81 games at Coors Field) and look for his numbers to rise in 2024. Infielder Ryan McMahon, the former 2013 2nd round pick by Colorado, provided solid offense for Colorado as well in 2023 with 133 hits, 23 home runs, 70 RBI’s, and a .431 SLG%. In his first full season, shortstop Ezequiel Tovar solidified himself as their shortstop moving forward after collecting 147 hits with 37 doubles, 73 RBI’s, and a .408 SLG% in 2023. There’s a lot that needs fixed in Denver - something that doesn’t look to happen and improve upon any time soon.
Postseason Predictions
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Wild Card Series: Houston (6) over Minnesota (3); New York (4) over Toronto (5)
Division Series: Baltimore (1) over New York (4); Texas (2) over Houston (6)
Championship Series: Texas (2) over Baltimore (1)
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Wild Card Series: San Diego (6) over Cincinnati (3); Philadelphia (4) over San Francisco (5)
Division Series: Los Angeles (2) over San Diego (6); Atlanta (1) over Philadelphia (4)
Championship Series: Atlanta (1) over Los Angeles (2)
WORLD SERIES
Atlanta over Texas in 6
2024 MLB Award Winners
Most Valuable Player: Juan Soto (AL); Matt Olson (NL)
Cy Young: Corbin Burnes (AL); Zac Gallen (NL)
Rookie of the Year: Wyatt Langford (AL); Yoshinobu Yamamoto